Targets and Progress Review - Electricity Sector Emissions to 2050

Electricity Sector Emissions to 2050

This modelling report presents projections of emissions from Australia’s electricity generation sector. The report has been used by the Authority to inform the Targets and Progress Review.
The results are from one of the suite of models used in the Treasury and the then Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (DIICCSRTE) modelling exercise. The report was prepared by ACIL Allen Consulting for the then DIICCSRTE.

• Electricty sector emissions (PDF 1.8MB)
• Electricty sector emissions (DOCX 1.8MB)

Underlying data for figures

• Figure ES 1: Aggregate emissions – No Carbon price and Central Policy scenarios (xlsx 17KB)
• Figure ES 2: Generation by fuel type – Central policy scenario (xlsx 38KB)
• Figure ES 3: Generation by fuel type – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 38KB)
• Figure ES 4: Aggregate emissions – carbon price scenarios (xlsx 18KB)
• Figure ES 5: Change in emissions from Central Policy scenario – all sensitivities (xlsx 27KB)
• Figure 1: Aggregate demand (xlsx 17KB)
• Figure 2: Carbon price assumptions (xlsx 16KB)
• Figure 3: Base capital cost comparison with AETA 2012 (xlsx 17KB)
• Figure 4: Final capital costs for new entrant technologies for selected years – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 24KB)
• Figure 5: International and netback gas price – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 22KB)
• Figure 6: New entrant coal prices (xlsx 18KB)
• Figure 7: Small-scale solar generation output assumptions (xlsx 22KB)
• Figure 8: Aggregate demand (xlsx 17KB)
• Figure 9: Demand by grid – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 22KB)
• Figure 10: Demand by grid – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 22KB)
• Figure 11: Aggregate emissions – No Carbon Price and Central Policy scenarios (xlsx 16KB)
• Figure 12:  Generation by fuel type – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 38KB)
• Figure 13: Emissions by fuel type – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 25KB)
• Figure 14: Emissions by grid – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 21KB)
• Figure 15: Generation by fuel type – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 38KB)
• Figure 16: Emissions by fuel type – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 26KB)
• Figure 17: Emissions by grid – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 21KB)
• Figure 18: Emissions by state – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 23KB)
• Figure 19: Emissions by state – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 23KB)
• Figure 20: Emissions intensity by state (sent out) – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 32KB)
• Figure 21: Emissions intensity by state (sent out) – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 32KB)
• Figure 22: Emissions trends under core scenarios and with counter-factual simulations (xlsx 20KB)
• Figure 23: Generation capacity – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 36KB)
• Figure 24: Generation capacity – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 36KB)
• Figure 25: Installed generation capacity – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 35KB)
• Figure 26: Installed generation capacity – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 34KB)
• Figure 27: Wholesale electricity prices – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 23KB)
• Figure 28: Wholesale electricity prices – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 24KB)
• Figure 29: Residential retail electricity prices – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 24KB)
• Figure 30: Residential retail electricity prices – Central Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 24KB)
• Figure 31: Percentage change in residential retail tariffs – No Carbon Price scenario to Central Policy scenario (xlsx 29KB)
• Figure 32: Industrial customer electricity prices – No Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 26KB)
• Figure 33: Industrial Customer electricity prices – Central Policy scenario (xlsx 24KB)
• Figure 34: Carbon price assumptions (xlsx 16KB)
• Figure 35: Aggregate demand – carbon price scenarios (xlsx 17KB)
• Figure 36: Generation by fuel type – High Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 38KB)
• Figure 37: Generation by fuel type – Low Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 38KB)
• Figure 38: Aggregate emissions – carbon price scenarios (xlsx 18KB)
• Figure 39: Emissions by fuel type – High Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 25KB)
• Figure 40: Emissions by fuel type – Low Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 26KB)
• Figure 41: Emissions by grid – High Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 22KB)
• Figure 42: Emissions by grid – Low Carbon Price scenario (xlsx 22KB)
• Figure 43: Demand assumptions – demand sensitivities (xlsx 18KB)
• Figure 44: Emissions intensity of generation – demand sensitivities (xlsx 18KB)
• Figure 45: Aggregate emissions – demand sensitivities (xlsx 18KB)
• Figure 46: Change in emissions relative to Central Policy scenario – fuel price sensitivities (xlsx 17KB)
• Figure 47: Demand elasticity of emissions (xlsx 16KB)
• Figure 48: Change in emissions per unit change in demand (xlsx 17KB)
• Figure 49: Gas price assumptions – fuel price sensitivities (xlsx 17KB)
• Figure 50: Coal price assumptions (xlsx 16KB)
• Figure 51: Aggregate emissions – fuel price sensitivities (xlsx 20KB)
• Figure 52: Change in emissions relative to Central Policy scenario – fuel price sensitivities (xlsx 17KB)
• Figure 53: Generation by fuel type – High Fuel Price sensitivity (xlsx 38KB)
• Figure 54: Generation by fuel type – Low Fuel Price sensitivity (xlsx 38KB)
• Figure 55: Change in output by generation grouping – High Fuel Price sensitivity (xlsx 19KB)
• Figure 56: Change in output by generation grouping – Low Fuel Price sensitivity (xlsx 19KB)
• Figure 57: Gas price elasticity of emissions (xlsx 16KB)
• Figure 58: Solar PV cost assumptions – technology cost sensitivities (xlsx 18KB)
• Figure 59: Aggregate emissions – technology cost sensitivities (xlsx 19KB)
• Figure 60: Change in emissions relative to Central Policy scenario – technology cost sensitivities (xlsx 18KB)
• Figure 61: Change in output by generation grouping – Fast Improvement sensitivity (xlsx 19KB)
• Figure 62: Change in output by generation grouping – Slow Improvement sensitivity (xlsx 19KB)
• Figure 63: Change in output by generation grouping – Fast Improvement (unconstrained) sensitivity (xlsx 19KB)
• Figure 64: Solar PV capital cost elasticity of emissions (xlsx 45KB)
• Figure 65: Aggregate emissions – technology restriction sensitivities (xlsx 19KB)
• Figure 66: Emissions change relative to Central Policy – technology restriction sensitivities (xlsx 61KB)
• Figure 67: Change in output by generation grouping – no CCS sensitivity (xlsx 19KB)
• Figure 68: Change in output by generation grouping – no Geothermal sensitivity (xlsx 19KB)
• Figure 69: Change in output by generation grouping – no CCS or Geothermal sensitivity (xlsx 841KB)
• Figure 70: Change in emissions from Central Policy scenario – all sensitivities (xlsx 22KB)