2035 Emissions Reduction Targets FAQs

Greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activity are causing the world’s climate to change in ways that are dangerous to humans and the natural ecosystems we rely on. Strong and urgent action to reduce emissions is required for the world to be on a safer climate trajectory.

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets are an important part of a nation’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement. The goals of the Paris Agreement include limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.

Under the Paris Agreement rules, countries measure, report and commit to reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that occur within their own borders. Countries are required to set domestic targets that are as ambitious as possible based on their responsibilities, capabilities and national circumstances. This is how nations take responsibility for their own environmental impact while promoting equitable and sustainable development globally. 

Emissions reduction targets also give certainty to businesses and investors, reducing investment risk, growing opportunities, and coordinating across sectors and supply chains. Increased and more ambitious national targets can catalyse more shared global action to address the escalating threats. ​

Under the Climate Change Act 2022, the Authority is responsible for advising the Australian Government on the emissions reduction targets for Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). This includes advising on the 2035 target, the social, employment and economic benefits of the targets and associated policies it recommends, and the physical impacts of climate change on Australia, including for rural and regional Australia. 

Our advice also includes an explanation of how the recommended targets have taken into account matters set out in the Paris Agreement, including the global temperature goals of well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 

Our work is always guided by the principles set out in the Climate Change Authority Act 2011 that any measures to respond to climate change should be, among other considerations, economically efficient, environmentally effective, equitable, in the public interest and consistent with Australia’s foreign policy interests and commitments. 

We consider scientific evidence to understand and advise how the global temperature goals and broader principles of the Paris Agreement should guide Australia’s domestic emissions reduction efforts. 

We have factored in the challenges and opportunities the net zero transition presents for the economy, and broader contributions Australia can make to the global effort. This approach includes looking at how we can support other countries to reduce their emissions and build resilience to climate change impacts, through export goods and services, and by continuing to help to build capacity through knowledge-sharing, technology transfer and climate finance in the region.

The role of the Australian Government is to set and implement the emissions reductions target under the Paris Agreement. To do so, every five years it must request our advice about what Australia’s NDC targets should be. The Government is then required to prepare its response to our advice in Parliament within 6 months of receiving it, and table it in Parliament. Read more on the Government’s role on the Department of Climate Change, Energy, The Environment and Water website: Net Zero - DCCEEW(Opens in a new tab/window)

Our advice is built on a rigorous methodology that starts with climate science and extends through whole-of-economy modelling, sector-by-sector analysis, deep engagement with stakeholders, insights from geoeconomics, and structured expert deliberation, ensuring its recommendations are robust and practical. 

We pulled together many different strands of analysis, including: 

• Grounded in science – We began with the best available climate science and projections of climate change impacts, the global goals to limit warming to well below 2 °C about pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit this to1.5 °C, and the remaining global emissions budget.
• System-wide modelling – We commissioned macroeconomic modelling from Australia’s premier science agency, the CSIRO, to evaluate the economic, technological and emissions implications. This first pass modelling exercise identified what is technically and economically achievable, using least cost pathways as a benchmark.
• Sectoral deep-dives – We then undertook detailed analysis of each sector to understand the role each can play in reducing emissions, including consideration of opportunities and constraints.
• Stakeholder engagement – We consulted widely with business, communities, governments and civil society to test assumptions, identify barriers and ground the analysis in real-world perspectives.
• Geoeconomic analysis – We examined how Australia’s choices fit into the global picture: trade relationships, demand for green exports, supply chain security, and the impacts of international policy shifts.
• Expert deliberation - Members of the Authority—appointed for their diverse fields of expertise—met regularly over 2.5 years to bring together the evidence from these 5 streams for expert consideration, having regard to the full range of legislative considerations. 

We recommended a target range to recognise geopolitical uncertainties, implementation barriers and the potential for technological advances. 

We recommended the Australian Government should aim for the top of the 62-70% range, prepare for breakthroughs and setbacks, and not rule out 'overachievement' should greater emissions reductions prove possible. This will keep us moving towards net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest. 

We also recommended the Government adopt an emissions budget target, capping the cumulative emissions over the target period. The budget target accommodates potential year-to-year volatility as emissions continue to drop throughout the target period, in line with the need to limit emissions as much as possible. 

Our advice on the 2035 target is grounded in science. We began with the best available climate science and projections of climate change impacts, the global goals to limit warming to well below 2 °C about pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit this to 1.5 °C, and the remaining global emissions budget, drawing on peer reviewed scientific literature and expert reports from many organisations. These scientific benchmarks shape the parameters for the modelling and ultimately for Australia’s pathway. As required under the Climate Change Act 2022, our advice to the Australian Government explains how the recommended targets take account of these temperature goals. It also explains how the other matters set out in legislation are reflected.  

To measure how Australia is tracking on this goal, we provide independent, expert advice every year to inform the Climate Change Minister’s annual statement on progress towards emissions reduction targets. This includes international developments, climate-related risks and climate policies, and the effectiveness of the safeguard mechanism. Read more about our Annual Progress Reports at: Annual Progress Report 

Climate and energy policies touch the lives and operations of every Australian household and business. While this can create near-term challenges and complexities, it also provides opportunities to deliver long-run benefits through lower energy costs, cleaner air, more attractive products and services, and enhanced resilience to extreme events such as heatwaves, drought, floods and storms. 

The impacts of climate change are likely to be felt most by vulnerable people, especially in suburbs and regional areas. These places are also where households are adopting solar, batteries and electric vehicles—demonstrating that emissions reduction measures can ease cost-of-living pressures while contributing to environmental goals.

Expert analysis by the Australian Energy Market Commission projects households will save around $1,000 each year in energy costs over the next decade under a coordinated renewables rollout. Households that fully electrify by transitioning to electric transportation, appliances, heating, and integrating solar and battery storage could potentially cut energy costs by as much as 70%.

With a clear 2035 target and coordinated investment, tailored regional transition plans can support economic diversification, unlock green industrial growth, and ensure communities are partners in a just transition that reflects our unique strengths and evolving industries.​

Investing in training, infrastructure, and community co-design of transition pathways – particularly in regions –can boost workforce participation, build trust, and align clean industry growth to local needs and priorities. 

An ambitious target is essential for creating jobs in regions that have underpinned Australia's economy for generations. It will create opportunities for Australian farmers and First Nations communities.

A decision on whether the 2035 targets will be legislated is a matter for the Australian Government.

Our advice includes guidance about how Australia can achieve the recommended targets by 2035. That includes implementation pathways for each sector as well as more general advice.

Technologies exist now to achieve the 2035 target by: 

• moving to a renewables-based electricity system
• electrifying transport and buildings and making them more energy efficient
• making industry, mining and agriculture more productive and less emissions-intense
• removing more land-sector carbon.

However, meeting even the lower end of the target range won’t be easy. It requires:

• halving Australia’s current emissions levels
• more than doubling Australia’s decarbonisation rate
• scaling up capacity in the National Electricity Market (NEM), including six-fold growth in utility storage, quadrupling wind capacity, tripling utility solar capacity and doubling rooftop and distributed solar capacity by 2035, consistent with the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO’s) Step Change scenario
• extending the Safeguard Mechanism’s decline rate out to 2035 to reduce emissions from industry and resources by almost a third
• half of the light vehicles sold between now and 2035 being electric vehicles (EVs)
• producing more sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel
• electrifying low temperature process heat in the industry sector
• increasing organics recycling rates from around 50% to more than 80%
• ceasing logging of old growth forests and halving re-clearing rates

We will continue to advise the Government on how to best achieve its 2030, 2035 and net zero targets, how even greater reductions might be achieved, and how it can step up its ongoing efforts to build proactive climate resilience and adaptation.

Australia’s clean energy transition is an economic growth opportunity, not an economic burden. 

CSIRO’s modelling and analysis(Opens in a new tab/window) shows any actual cost to the economy is negligible with all major sectors of the economy continuing to expand. Meanwhile, the benefits from investment in new green industries and avoided damages from climate change are enormous.

Much of the so called ‘cost’ of achieving a target is actually investment to replace ageing assets like old coal plants, vehicles, appliances and industrial gear with cheaper to run technology—this is investment that has to happen regardless of the need to reduce emissions. It’s investment in solar, wind, batteries, EVs, heat pumps, and efficient tech that generate jobs, savings, and long-term value for Australians. It grows the economy, rather than being a drain on it or a ‘bill’ to taxpayer. 

We have not recommended sector targets because sectors, industries and companies will decarbonise at different rates depending on the technologies and opportunities available. We have analysed a range of possible emissions reduction outcomes in each sector and across the economy.

Both the CSIRO’s and our independent analyses found that every sector can reduce emissions now with existing technologies, and opportunities will continue to grow in the coming decade as new and emerging technologies become available.

Yes, Australia can play an important role in helping other countries, especially its trading partners, achieve significant emissions reductions. Decarbonisation deals between nations and businesses could be a key achievement at COP31 in 2026—under a potential Australian presidency in partnership with the Pacific—putting a focus on implementing targets, reducing emissions in international supply chains, and creating demand for Australia’s green exports.

Countries and businesses could make voluntary political declarations or join non-binding, coalition-based or regional initiatives at COP31, like the existing Australia-Japan Partnership on Decarbonisation through Technology and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) Clean Economy Agreement, with 14 members including Australia, Japan, Korea, India, Southeast Asian nations and the US.

The Authority’s recommended 2035 domestic emissions reduction target is likely to place Australia among world leaders in terms of ambition, particularly in terms of per capita emissions reductions.

Under the Authority’s target range, Australia would decrease per capita emissions from 30.3 Mt CO2 per million people in 2005, to 5.9-7.5 in 2035. If Australia were to achieve the median of this range (6.7), this equals a 78% decrease in Australia’s emissions per capita between 2005 and 2035. ​

Achieving this target would rapidly shift Australia from having extremely high emissions per capita to approaching the average of comparable countries by 2035. 

The Paris Agreement requires countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to be as ambitious as possible, while recognising their unique responsibilities, capabilities and national circumstances. All countries have different histories and contexts, so no single measure can fully explain a nation's ambition or progress towards decarbonisation. 

Countries choose different base years, sectoral coverage, greenhouse gas coverage (i.e. carbon dioxide, methane etc) and different economic structures that reflect their own opportunities and challenges. Developed countries are strongly expected to use absolute economy-wide emission reduction targets as they can plan for future reductions, though not all do. Some countries – such as China and India –set their 2030 targets in terms of reducing the emissions intensity of their economies, though may take a different approach for their 2035 targets. ​

Some countries have signalled their intention to use international carbon credit offsets traded under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement towards achieving their targets. The Authority has advised Australia adopt a target based on domestic action only and contribute to offshore contributions through other means, while remaining open to the use of international offsets in the future. 

Australia’s biggest opportunities to contribute to emission reductions lie beyond our domestic borders. Our offshore contributions can supercharge global efforts to reduce emissions.

In addition to our advice on Australia’s domestic emissions reduction target, we found Australia could lead by example by including consideration of emissions from Australia’s exports in its NDC or complementary materials. Offshore contributions can complement – and are not a substitute – for efforts to reduce domestic emissions as far and as fast as possible.

For decades, countries have measured and managed emissions within territorial boundaries, with less regard for the carbon embedded in their exports and imports. This approach marks a limitation of internationally agreed methods of carbon accounting. It fails to address the complexity of international supply chains for economic activities that cause emissions, and the need for countries to cooperate to achieve global cuts in emissions of the scale required, and with outcomes that are mutually beneficial. It has hampered global efforts to reduce emissions and seen the international trade system function largely at odds with climate ambition by outsourcing emissions to trade partners. Goods flow across borders, often without consideration of their carbon intensity. Emissions embedded in supply chains have largely been treated as someone else’s problem, and countries have generally not adopted policies to encourage the import of low-emissions goods. As a result, countries and companies have had little incentive to reform emissions-intensive exports for fear of losing market share, and been provided with too little incentive to scale up low-emissions alternatives.

The time has come to flip that script. Rather than seeing cross-border emissions as a risk or cost, nations can collaborate on cross-border emissions as a mutually beneficial way to reduce global emissions. Now is the time, with supply chain transparency, low-emissions credentials, and climate-aligned finance reshaping global trade. 

This shift can mean substantial economic opportunities for Australia and insulate us from the declining demand for fossil fuels as other countries decarbonise. Emissions from the use of Australia’s coal and gas by customers overseas currently amount to about 3 times as much as the emissions generated in Australia, or around 4% of global emissions. Customers of Australia’s fossil fuel imports will decide when they phase them out and there is a risk that as Australia reduces its fossil fuel exports, other countries may increase their exports to ‘fill the gap’. That’s why we recommend phasing out fossil fuels in a planned and organised way. It should involve the development of new technologies, production processes, and engagement with industries, communities, trading partners and competitors. 

Achieving the recommended target for 2035 requires the committed and coordinated efforts of governments, companies and households to overcome challenges that stand in the way. These barriers – and strategies and actions to address them – are set out in our 2024 Sector Pathways Review. 

Examples include:

• establishing policy settings and market design arrangements that will continue to drive the clean energy transition beyond 2030
• simplifying, coordinating and expediting approval processes for priority projects within and between jurisdictions
• implementing a carbon border adjustment measure to maintain the competitiveness of Australian businesses as decarbonisation accelerates
• agree on the cost of carbon (value of emissions reductions) to further promote efficient decision-making and resource allocation.

Our upcoming 2025 Annual Progress Report will show how we’re tracking against Australia’s 2030 and 2035 emissions reduction targets. Read more about our annual progress advice here: Annual Progress Report.