2035 Emissions Reduction Targets

Greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activity are causing the world’s climate to change in ways that are dangerous to humans and the natural ecosystems we rely on. Strong and urgent action to reduce emissions is required for the world to be on a safer climate trajectory.

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets are an important part of a nation’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, the global agreement on climate change.

Australia’s current NDC includes 3 emissions reduction targets:

• A commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2030, implemented as a single-year point target.
• A multi-year emissions budget for the period 2021 to 2030, with an indicative value of 4381 million tonnes CO2-e, corresponding to the 43% target.
• Achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

Under the Paris Agreement rules, countries measure, report and commit to reducing the greenhouse gas emissions that occur within their own borders. In this way, countries take responsibility for their own environmental impact while promoting equitable and sustainable development globally. The authority’s 2035 targets recommendations for Australia’s next NDC will be consistent with this approach.

The authority will provide advice on the 2035 greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets it considers should be included in Australia’s next NDC. We will also advise on the social, employment and economic benefits of the targets and associated policies it recommends and the physical impacts of climate change on Australia, including for rural and regional Australia.

In accordance with the Climate Change Act 2022, our advice will include an explanation of how the targets have taken into account matters set out in Article 2 of the Paris Agreement, including the global temperature goals of well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 

The authority’s work is always guided by the principle set out in the Climate Change Authority Act 2011 that any measures to respond to climate change should be, among other considerations, economically efficient, environmentally effective, equitable, in the public interest and consistent with Australia’s foreign policy interests and commitments.

We consider scientific evidence to understand and advise how the global temperature goals and broader principles of the Paris Agreement should guide Australia’s domestic emissions reduction efforts. 

In preparing its advice, the authority will consider the challenges and opportunities the net zero transition presents for the Australian economy, and broader contributions Australia can make to the global effort. This includes looking at how Australia can support other countries reduce their emissions and build resilience to climate change impacts, through the goods and services we export, and by building on our history of contributing to capacity building through knowledge-sharing, technology transfer and climate finance in the region.

As noted above, emissions reductions targets in a country’s NDC are focused on the emissions arising within that country’s borders. As part of its broader considerations, the authority will consider how Australia can develop and supply clean energy, critical minerals and low and zero emissions products to our trading partners, potentially making a further significant contribution to the global effort to reduce emissions. 

This can provide substantial economic opportunities for Australia and insulate us from the inevitable decline in fossil fuel demand, and the associated decline in jobs and export income, as countries strive to meet their own emissions reduction targets. Emissions from the use of Australia’s coal and gas by customers overseas amount to approximately three (3) times as much as the emissions generated in Australia – around 4% of global emissions (Climate Change Authority, 2021). Customers of Australia’s fossil fuel imports will decide when they phase them out and there is a risk that as Australia reduces its fossil fuel exports, other countries may increase their exports to ‘fill the gap’. Hence, the authority considers that phasing out fossil fuels will need to be a planned and organised process, involving the development of new technologies, production processes, and engagement with industries, communities, trading partners and competitors. 

The authority is concurrently reviewing potential technology transition and emissions pathways that will best support Australia’s transition to net zero emissions by 2050. 

The authority’s sector pathways review will provide vital information for the development of the authority’s 2035 targets advice. 

You can read more about the Sector Pathways Review here.