Targets and Progress Review

Australian agriculture emission projections to 2050

This modelling report presents projections of Australia’s agricultural emissions, covering the five major sets of agricultural emissions, to 2050. The report has been used by the Authority to inform the Targets and Progress Review.

The results are from one of the suite of models used in the Treasury and the then Department of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research and Tertiary Education (DIICCSRTE) modelling exercise. The report was prepared by the Centre for International Economics for the then DIICCSRTE.

• Australian Agricultural Emissions Projections to 2050 - (PDF 1.8MB)
• Australian Agricultural Emissions Projections to 2050 - (DOCX 1.4MB)

Underlying data for figures

• Figure 2.1: Total agricultural emissions (excluding prescribed burning of savannas): 1990 to 2050 (xlsx 102KB)
• Figure 2.2: Emissions by broad sector 1990 to 2050 (xlsx 113KB)
• Figure 3.2: Livestock emissions (xlsx 106KB)
• Figure 3.3: Enteric fermentation (xlsx 111KB)
• Figure 3.4: Manure management (xlsx 111KB)
• Figure 3.5: Agricultural soils (xlsx 107KB)
• Figure 3.6: Crop emissions (xlsx 106KB)
• Figure 3.7: Field burning of agricultural residues (xlsx 109KB)
• Figure 4.9: Rice cultivation area and yield (xlsx 110KB)
• Figure 4.10: Rice production (xlsx 104KB)
• Figure 4.11: Sugarcane cultivation area and cane yield (xlsx 111KB)
• Figure 4.12: Sugarcane crushed (xlsx 105KB)
• Figure 4.13: Cotton area (xlsx 105KB)
• Figure 5.3: Impact on annual emissions of sensitivity analysis (xlsx 220KB)
• Figure C.1: Impact of foreign demand on agricultural output (xlsx 159KB)
• Figure C.2: Impact of live animal export reduction on agricultural output  (xlsx 60KB)
• Figure C.3: Impact of exchange rates on agricultural output (xlsx 308KB)
• Figure C.4: Impact of productivity on agricultural output (xlsx 296KB)
• Figure C.5: Impact of slaughtering weight and yield on agricultural output (xlsx 293KB)
• Figure C.6: Impact of input prices on agricultural output (xlsx 298KB)
• Figure C.7: Impact of extended drought on agricultural output (xlsx 265KB)
• Figure C.8: Combined sensitivity analysis result (xlsx 293KB)

Underlying data for tables

• Table 2.3: Emissions by broad sector (xlsx 87KB)
• Table 2.5: Projected annual growth rate of agricultural emissions between 2012 and 2030 (xlsx 87KB)
• Table 3.1: Agricultural emissions by sector and subsector (xlsx 90KB)
• Table 4.1: Projected meat production: the central reference case (xlsx 89KB)
• Table 4.2: Projected meat exports: the central reference case (xlsx 91KB)
• Table 4.3: Projected beef cattle numbers: the central reference case (xlsx 88KB)
• Table 4.4: Projected sheep, pig and poultry numbers: the central reference case (xlsx 89KB)
• Table 4.5: Projected milk production by state: the central reference case (xlsx 87KB)
• Table 4.6: Projected use of Australian milk, index of quantity: the central reference case (xlsx 87KB)
• Table 4.7: Projected dairy cattle numbers by state: the central reference case (xlsx 87KB)
• Table 4.8: Projected grain production: the central reference case (xlsx 89KB)
• Table 4.14: Projected fertiliser use: the central reference case (xlsx 88KB)
• Table 5.2: Impact on emissions – percentage deviation from the central reference case (xlsx 88KB)
• Table A.4: Range of income elasticities in the GMI model (xlsx 87KB)
• Table A.5: Range of price elasticities in the GMI model (xlsx 87KB)
• Table A.6: Demand elasticities for dairy products (xlsx 87KB)
• Table A.7: Demand elasticities for grain products (xlsx 87KB)
• Table A.8: Elasticities or transformation or substitution in the Grains model (xlsx 87KB)
• Table B.2: Total productivity improvement assumption for meat type and region in the GMI model (xlsx 88KB)
• Table B.3: Growth in slaughtering weight: GMI model (xlsx 87KB)
• Table B.4: Growth in the ratio of animal number to slaughtered: GMI model (xlsx 87KB)
• Table B.5: Productivity improvement: the Dairy model (xlsx 89KB)